Canadian Dollar Forecast: Loonie Looks to Take Flight ...

@AlphaexCapital : USD/CAD holds lower amid firmer loonie; Canadian CPI data in focus today https://t.co/GxIysIyCu7 #forex #forextrading #investing

@AlphaexCapital : USD/CAD holds lower amid firmer loonie; Canadian CPI data in focus today https://t.co/GxIysIyCu7 #forex #forextrading #investing submitted by AlphaexCapital to AlphaexCapital [link] [comments]

Moving USD/CAD funds and the implication of capital gains taxation

Hello, US Citizen living and working in Ontario.
I have both a Canadian bank account and my original US bank account that I still use when I'm travelling/spending money in the US. I'd like to replenish my US-based bank account with more funds using Transferwise if the power of the loonie increases against USD. But I don't want to bother with that if I need to pay a capital gains tax on it. When does/doesn't moving CAD between USD count as an 'investment'?
I have noticed the big banks here in Canada often offer chequing/savings accounts in US dollar funds. Has anyone used these? I presume you move your CAD from your primary account to the USD account. But, what if you move the funds back from the USD account to CAD? Does Capital Gains taxation apply here?
tl;dr: When does converting currency get considered as FOREX trading? Where's the line drawn?
submitted by ChanceFlower to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

USD/CAD long ?

Hi everyone!
I'm not a forex trader but I wanted to ask you old hands how you see the Canadian buck performing.
I ultimately want to end up in CAD to buy a house in a years time. I presently hold USD and wanted to get a general feeling from you guys if now is a good time to swap into CAD, or do I wait? USDCAD presently at 1.41.
To me, it seems the Fed will print the balls off the USD into a less valuable currency, although even with all this printing the DXY is presently holding over 100pts. So I dont know 🤷🏻‍♂️
Looking at QE1-3 in 2008-9, the CAD strengthens against the USD. Is this going to happen again?
Alternatively, I open my browser and find this in my feed: https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-24/canada-headed-for-60-cent-loonie-and-downgrades-rosenberg-says
What's a guy to do!? Thanks!
submitted by CoopAir1 to Forex [link] [comments]

Virus containment hopes support Asian currencies

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot)
Across mainland China there were 2,015 new confirmed infections as of Tuesday, the lowest daily rise since Jan. 30.
The Australian dollar, sensitive to China's fortunes because of Australia's commodity-driven export profile, firmed 0.3% to $0.6728 AUD=D3.
Oil prices, a barometer of global energy demand and so of growth, remain nearly a fifth lower than they were before the outbreak.
The currencies of oil exporters such as Canada and Norway have been hammered, with the krone NOK= shedding 5% this year and the loonie CAD=D3 hitting a four-month low on Monday.
"The main impact of coronavirus for Europe is growth," said Steve Englander, head of global G10 FX research at Standard Chartered.
"The euro area started the year with low growth and an ECB largely out of policy options...(a) bad scenario could see an extension of recent moves and EUUSD may head towards the $1.04/05 lows of the European debt crisis."
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: low#1 growth#2 China#3 coronavirus#4 hit#5
Post found in /worldnews and /NotClickBaitNews.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

My experience with Norbit's Gambit [google sheets link included]

Just want to share my experience doing Norbit's Gambit, for anyone that may want to learn on my experience, or tell me all the ways in which I am wrong.
I've posted a question earlier, asking how to make sure the market didn't swing in the wrong direction. And yes, I understand it's called a "gambit" for a reason.
=== TL;DR === - Wanted to save $65 on currency conversion while buying CAD $3,500 worth of US stock - Overestimated forex fee, underestimated NG cost - Murphy happened... - Lost potential gains of CAD $185.80 while waiting - Is the gambit ever worth it?
=== The goal === - On August 25th, use about CAD $3,500 to buy some US Netflix (NFLX) shares
=== The method === - Buy DLR in CAD - Call brokerage to journal over to US side - Sell DLR.U in USD - Buy NFLX with USD
In a lot of my research, I've been told the "fee" when going through the brokerage (Questrade in my case) is 2%. That's not too accurate.
=== The brokerage Forex rate/fee === So I assumed 2% of $3,500 would be $70.
However it's really an addition of 199 basis points to the exchange rate. I believe they use the closing exchange rate on the date of the transaction.
So if the exchange was 1.2500, it's 1.2699, and $CAD 1000 nets $USD 787.46 ($USD 12.54 short of ideal $USD 800). If we convert 12.54 to CAD, it's $CAD 15.68 or 1.568% on the original $CAD 1000.
But if the exchange is 1.2200, it's 1.2399, and $CAD 1000 nets $USD 806.51 ($USD 13.16 short of ideal $USD 819.67). If we convert 13.16 to CAD, it's $CAD 16.06 of 1.606% of the original $CAD 1000
The "conversion fee" is dependent on the exchange rate, but I can't figure out a quick direct way to calculate what the "fee" would be in source currency %. The closest guesstimate is to divide the basis points by the current exchange rate, as below:
On August 25th, the exchange rate was 1.2483. So the above guesstimate for the Forex "fee" would be $55.80. Or more accurately $54.91, close enough. Still, that's 21.5% lower than the broad *$70** estimate earlier.*
=== The NG effective fee === Here once again, the common consensus is that the NG's fee is just a cost of buying and selling an ETF. So, with QT's free ETF purchases, the guesstimate is just about $5 for the selling commission.
When I bought DLR ETF on August 25th, I got it for CAD $12.42 per share (that's not the day's close price, but what I actually paid). the US side of DLR.U is always US $9.93. The gives the DLR Exchange Rate of 1.2508... already different from the ideal 1.2483 (I suppose that's how the ETF makes money)
So, it would appear the cost/fee of NG is just CAD $0.99 + US $5.94 (CAD $8.40)... but not quite. Let's look as the actual US dollar amounts. Since we can only buy whole shares of DLR + ECN fee, from this point I am converting CAD $3,502.44 + $0.99 = $3,503.43
The difference between the ideal US $amount and what I am left with is the "fee" for doing NG. US $12.24, or CAD $15.28. This sets the NG's Effective Exchange Rate as 1.2538 or a "NG's fee" of 0.44%. Please note that this rate/fee is *based on the converted amount*: the more you convert, the less/cheaper it is.
So comparing the actual cost of NG vs QT's auto conversion and the guesstimates is quite different - Actual $15.28 vs $54.91 ($39.63 spread) - Guesstimate $5 vs $70 ($65 spread)
=== The Time factor === Now that I have US $2,794.32, let's buy some NFLX. The date now is Sept 5th (yes, the NG completed earlier, but I am human... also QT didn't call me when the journaling was completed so I got sidetracked).
Before doing the NG, I calculated that NFLX dropped about 2.02% in 10 days. It could also go up by same amount. That 2.02% rise on CAD $3,500 value would be a gain of $70.7... comparable to $65 guesstimate loss of doing currency auto-conversion through QT (QTAC). So in my analysis, at worth case it would be a wash, in best case I save some money on NG. ... We already know now that the actual cost of QTAC is much less ....
This was the end result of my NG: spent CAD $3,503.43 and 11 days later I have a US stock+cash Portfolio of value US $2,789.37
But considering the increase in NFLX stock over those 11 days, what if I would have just went with Questrade's Auto-conversion (QTAC) route?
In 11 days, the value of NFLX is @178.79 - Current value of 16 NFLX shares = US $2,860.64 - Plus cash US $77.57 for a Total Portfolio Value of US $2,938.21
If, on August 25th, I would have auto converted currency with QT and bought NFLX, I would have a portfolio value of US $2,938.21 on September 5th.
Instead, starting the Norbit's Gambit on August 25th, I bought NFLX on Sept 5th and have a portfolio value of US $2,789.37
Instead of saving a guesstimate of CAD $65, I have lost potential gains of US $148.84 or CAD $185.80
=== Murphy... or Loonie... whatever === In all of above, I tried to keep the currency fluctuations isolated. So apart from initial conversion on August 25th, all my future (September 5th) portfolio values were in USD. But as Murphy would have it, the BoC rate announcement made the loonie stronger in between my NG.
Based on above, doing QT auto-conversion - On August 25th, nets US $2,762.52 - On September 5th, nets US $2,817.62 I would have got US $55.10 more just by doing the QTAC later.
If I would have bought NFLX on September 5th after doing QTAC - 15 whole shares @178.79 + $4.95 comm leaves me with US $130.82 in cash - Total NFLX + Cash portfolio value of US $2,812.67
That's still US $23.30 more than doing the NG, although still less than just buying NFLX outright on August 25th and letting it grow.
=== Final conclusion === Smaller amount (CAD $3,500) for NG for a stock purchase that could/did swing 6% was not worth it. Loonie getting stronger also made the whole exercise fruitless, but even eliminating the currency fluctuation, the growth of the stock outperformed the savings of NG.
Playing with my numbers, assuming the currency fluctuation is fixed, for CAD $3,500, doing Norbit's Gambit vs Questrade's Auto-Conversion is breaking even when the stock appreciation is no more than 1.18% during the time it takes to complete NG (11 days in my case). Even if you are more punctual and can complete it in 5 days, you still need to make sure the stock doesn't appreciate more than 1.18% in 5 days.
By comparison, if converting CAD $10,000, it's break even if stock rises 1.27% during that time. When doing CAD $50,000 then 1.31%
Hmm.... so even at high amounts of CAD $50,000 the tolerance to stock fluctuation is pretty low. So is it worth it?
Ultimately I've:
For anyone that cares, here is public Google Sheets docs to verify my math (File -> Make a copy, in order to edit values) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12nH8Q_0cKFtFTW_yomASHtpLXN6oYuTgkXeTNAMkQGY/edit?usp=sharing
submitted by hydraSlav to PersonalFinanceCanada [link] [comments]

[Help Request] Trading insights for USD/CAD.

Hey guys, I recently finished the BabyPips course on Forex and have a general understanding of trading, but now that I want to delve into a specific currency pair (USD/CAD) I feel lost in terms to what use in my analysis. Obviously, the loonie is largely affected by oil prices but I'm still not entirely sure which oil indices (because there are several) or other Canada-specific metrics I should be looking (besides the universal things like unemployment, central bank announcements, etc). Could someone please point me in the right direction for this currency pair? Any help is greatly appreciated.
submitted by Heart_Of_Dankness to Forex [link] [comments]

currency pairs and correlation - how do you trade?

fellow forex traders i am curious about how you guys put together the list of currency pairs you are watching? especially if currency pair correlation play a role to you? for example if you have the eurusd in your list do you also have the gbpusd? these pairs are positively correlated at about 90%. see link: http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation/EURUSD
if you take correlation into consideration at what percentage would you think that correlation is no longer important? at 80%? 70%?
i understand it would be to prefer to trade the eurusd as it has more liquidity and not trade both at same time as you expose yourself to the same risk in two trades.
i am a newbie so still in the process of finalizing my list. recently became aware of the correlations between some pairs and was thinking about which ones to exclude. this is my list:
Major Currencies:
Symbol Name Nickname
EURO/USD Euro-Dollar Euro
USD/JPY Dollar-Yen Yen
GBP/USD Sterling-Dollar Sterling
USD/CHF Dollar-Swiss Swissy
AUD/USD Austrialian-Dollar Aussie
USD/CAD Dollar-Canada Loonie
NZD/USD New Zealand-Dollar Kiwi
Cross Currencies:
Symbol Name Nickname
EURO/GDP Euro-Sterling Chunnel
EURO/CHF Euro-Swiss Chief
EURO/JPY Euro-Yen Yuppy
submitted by master_dude to Forex [link] [comments]

AUD/CAD Technical Analysis. Potential for a long term set up.

AUD/CAD's recently caught my attention, for a few reasons. Going to attempt some fundies, and then look at some tech for setups.
The Loonie
USOil, D1
http://i.imgur.com/AIUxB3f.png
Looks pretty bullish to me. Any serious crisis could spark a lot of volatility, pushing price through the 110 ceiling. It's unlikely, granted, but it's difficult to see a drastic fall in oil demand any time soon.
On the other hand, we have the Australian dollar
https://www.tradingview.com/x/m6y9Vz7b/
That's not a great chart, but you can clearly see what's happening there. Generally in a downward trending range, which looks rather overbought at the moment. A break to the upside would be extremely bullish for the Aussie, but that's not very likely given rumours of slowing demand from China and a declining gold price.
I know there are a few gold bugs lurking in this sub who are going to argue with me, but I'm pretty bearish on Gold as well.
So in a nutshell my bias could be summed up as neutral to bullish CAD, neutral to bearish AUD.
Here's the AUD/CAD daily:
http://i.imgur.com/y5acVLB.png
The top pink rectangle is an absolutely pivotal supply/demand area that has long since been breached. We're currently within a downward channel (much cleaner than AUD/USD's) after failing above the 50% retracement of the year's decline and an attempt to clear this zone.
The orange line is the 100 Month moving average, but don't get too excited - it hasn't done a great job of providing major support or resistance for as long as I have chart data.
The current channel, if it continues, will bring us very neatly to the rising line connecting the July 2010 and July 2013 lows, as well as a strong demand area, and roughly the 0.382 retracement of the move from 2010 to 2013.
This area is the last chance for bulls. At the point marked with a green circle on my chart I'll be watching price action very carefully. It might take a few days to play out, or it could happen very quickly, but price will probably give us an indication of where it will be heading in 2014 if it gets to that level.
There are two trades:
  1. A bounce. I prefer this from a technical perspective, but it doesn't align with my fundamental bias. I'll trade what I see though and if a spike low is formed around this area I will enter long with a stop below that spike, and targeting 0.9700, parity and 1.0500.
  2. A break of the 0.9250 area and retest and failure at this level opens up a lot of downside targets - noted in green as fibonacci extensions. If this happens, the challenge will be judging if there is sufficient volatility to give the move continuation, and finding a suitable level to trade against. Downside targets are 0.900, 0.8800 and 0.8600
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

What to Expect from USD/CAD and Other Loonie Pairs with BoC Expected to Hike (Strategy Video) Forex Analiza Tehnica & Fundamentala - USDCAD (Loonie) LOONIE (USD/CAD) an der Klippe - YouTube Forex News: 23/01/2020 - ECB meets after BoC sinks loonie; Risk appetite wobbles Forex Preview: 18/02/2020 - Canadian inflation to challenge loonie’s rebound USD/CAD - HOD Forex Strategy LIVE Forex Trading USD/CAD: Watch the Trade Start to ...

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What to Expect from USD/CAD and Other Loonie Pairs with BoC Expected to Hike (Strategy Video)

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